The CRISP model described in full

27 October 2025

Ahead of the UN publication, the Joint Research Centre released Introducing the CRISP model to downscale future population projections, the report that sets out how the model works. It is by Jacobs-Crisioni, Schiavina, Krasnodębska, Dijkstra, Claassens, Hilferink, Van der Wielen and Koomen, with Jip and Maarten among the authors.

CRISP turns a national population projection into a global one-kilometre grid running to 2100, in three steps: change per functional area, then allocation of new built-up surface to individual cells, then population moving into the newly built-up and more attractive cells and out of the rest. Modelling the built-up surface first, and only then the population, is what makes the result behave like a settlement pattern rather than a smoothed statistical surface.

The report matters beyond the model itself. A projection that informs national policy should be open to inspection, and this one is: the method is published, the code runs on GeoDMS, and the documentation is public. More on the work in population and urbanisation.