Four scenarios for the Netherlands in 2050

16 March 2023

PBL published Vier scenario's voor de inrichting van Nederland in 2050, the main report of the Ruimtelijke Verkenning 2023. Four futures, deliberately far apart: Mondiaal Ondernemend, where large companies lead; Snelle Wereld, where digitalisation makes distance matter less; Groen Land, with much more room for nature; and Regionaal Geworteld, where people organise their own surroundings.

What makes the exercise useful is that each story was worked out into a detailed map of the country, combining spatial modelling with design research. The RuimteScanner did the land-use allocation: given what each scenario demands in housing, work, energy and agriculture, where does it actually fit, and what has to give way.

A scenario stated in words can accommodate anything. A scenario drawn on a map cannot, and that is the point of drawing it.